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其他
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0003-0002.jpg?sign=1739289721-ItD3LjXnPG0sJNLQO4Zfh7vTYTXnUd3S-0-c0f2810c1002155768c0f346501cdd31)
图1.12 中国台湾地区FOF统计数据
数据来源:Bloomberg,星潮FOF整理
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0003-0003.jpg?sign=1739289721-PWmwIQTTOplhbD9YDflOY3C4dykny2PH-0-9b8ce27258233762f16660a30ffcbefd)
图1.25 桥水全天候基金的走势图
数据来源:Bridgewater,星潮FOF整理
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0003-0004.jpg?sign=1739289721-ZugNk6de9koUYBchvMdMN5lFamEsifrE-0-38273ab31d1261cdcf3f6caab6bfab5b)
图3.13 耶鲁基金模式资产配置
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0003-0005.jpg?sign=1739289721-Ntw8HDWZOKdMoXQQZ7tlwKPnOc9KPWuP-0-56a69c0179b44e129d24054ba4feeccd)
图3.16 耶鲁基金表现情况
数据来源:星潮FOF整理
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0004-0006.jpg?sign=1739289721-MIDczMaiavUrwfGeve23UXkRC8nD2Jtg-0-23fd34e09e35d811c31e6163eca3da49)
图3.22 从1926年7月到2013年8月美股四大板块的收益率走势对比
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0004-0007.jpg?sign=1739289721-BWFlbhqSg6ruZYSPavuEHS9lc8UBUS8E-0-550b6ddf508725cfd90921c8b69e0854)
图3.26 先锋平衡指数基金历史表现
资料来源:先锋公司官网
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0004-0008.jpg?sign=1739289721-DCqNSFzFip0sfzcrA9FK16jDDBknIfYq-0-f69764661899d4c0aa9bd4c39cfed9b6)
图3.30 多资产ETF跟踪指数走势历史表现对比
资料来源:彭博
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0005-0009.jpg?sign=1739289721-vN2DvX4CnUedtUjBGfxm4z4d5aKfQT2e-0-ae9745bd75b3fef5a2ae4b465e00df8d)
图4.3 上证50指数在不同权重优化视角下的组合累计收益率表现(年度调仓)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0005-0010.jpg?sign=1739289721-fug6RlDYE5QqQD3pTWWXlJlcyD0HJ5tq-0-cf4945e3ab263d47b6cb8fee632ec405)
图4.4 上证50指数在不同权重优化视角下的组合累计收益率表现(季度调仓)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0005-0011.jpg?sign=1739289721-k08UCZ6Y6AXa9HttsgNNjjT6muajpMsQ-0-1cd3e3ff09231d9d6b2a88385acb9851)
图4.5 上证50指数在不同权重优化视角下的组合累计收益率表现(月度调仓)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0006-0012.jpg?sign=1739289721-ThlzENMq3BbOmIqt1erCI3eX5h4exRKD-0-51d29cab9fd00d408d936aeb86f68e5f)
图4.6 上证50指数在不同权重优化视角下的组合累计收益率表现(两周调仓)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0006-0013.jpg?sign=1739289721-nStVVAyB1jmGveMlfR5C4MI55ZWCagXS-0-e40778e57bb2520666043bc76dfa4e2a)
图4.7 基于价值因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0006-0014.jpg?sign=1739289721-tfWc4QodPXEtKaTcvCTKAgbhOESijOHA-0-1d75efc51980524838b68c2ad26306aa)
图4.8 基于成长因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0007-0015.jpg?sign=1739289721-ek0qmIFJpatlDU6SQVUoA1JS8T0vFLcY-0-fbe37f875df7a3e44a9cb9afd6d53b24)
图4.9 基于质量因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0007-0016.jpg?sign=1739289721-MVM3ODHTC5IItXqFQTfn5TmcIQMqs8gg-0-c744b7e80dd6696625baf56c34be98a9)
图4.10 基于股息因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0007-0017.jpg?sign=1739289721-ysqjoSWuEMyydjok6yTLdf4YJDrE1cdn-0-181949ea33fe24cbde276d197b1e8d4d)
图4.11 基于规模因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0008-0018.jpg?sign=1739289721-V6F8AFNsf7hbX2llXk1GWHyM3ZAxHid2-0-54435dd5d9d20472ba5ffc40de85f2ba)
图4.12 基于动量因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0008-0019.jpg?sign=1739289721-GYEBdEe4EENuOtB196XvcdFCa7CNRzXy-0-bff659fa83c5860f83ff7b0d5a5e47fe)
图4.13 基于反转因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0008-0020.jpg?sign=1739289721-cU2lTTIacZ74l54JrsrH5LkLitZ3KPN3-0-316c6d8ede43231c27f61096e81fab4d)
图4.14 基于分析师预期因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0009-0021.jpg?sign=1739289721-uMR8ygvdnrhbd5VPlmTATi3EV2jaS1ay-0-7380c913defe07b663dbc6c6a01a42fa)
图4.15 基于情绪因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0009-0022.jpg?sign=1739289721-yhCuPUDLqT2j1NO9mwRu8MZLY2Ah1s5f-0-76d2be2d0c21aebfa63577944f1662dd)
图4.16 基于人气指标因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0009-0023.jpg?sign=1739289721-AVSt1ptdFgxNjRkjIhM57fFyMMrpilia-0-353c5e4d531970b2538c03df8ef2b695)
图4.17 基于波动因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0010-0024.jpg?sign=1739289721-doND57quylOvMrMg46aYnbZLLPizw1SQ-0-04c051173919e1f93cd60379d622b7fc)
图4.19 基于多因子的Smart Beta中证800指数净值回测
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0010-0025.jpg?sign=1739289721-LQE5anNgSw5j93jNlaD5Z0tyDEIabRhn-0-c0354059b71338f3c82c5f58877c5f71)
图4.20 回测净值曲线图(含货币型基金指数)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0011-0026.jpg?sign=1739289721-rYMoSWJGcauyxzw8meAbH0mi5wKq7xPD-0-b4fc255f90c5cc1953ac15b6b6112645)
图4.21 回测净值曲线图(剔除货币型基金指数)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0011-0027.jpg?sign=1739289721-KtJGQ1RaBil2Oy6AgxQ2mDLWBMCj1OKe-0-f4853e573a82108b4dc77e29f903b3ba)
图5.6 火鸡策略曲线
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0011-0028.jpg?sign=1739289721-dtqPRts643K3FS4QhMxiZeKI3BhzyX8e-0-ea1b0586df63eaa2ef25c29cebd6528b)
图5.20 市场情绪指标择时策略
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0012-0029.jpg?sign=1739289721-6akvMwaSuaBAg35KR0FkSe2kKHHXBJ5h-0-f3420bc794ba15f02e6e3cdcdc725f7a)
图5.30 各资产净值走势
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0012-0030.jpg?sign=1739289721-G4s7J72eW22wUMqS3GrCrnQN95pomE4Y-0-914f9fbef551233f96e63dec5cb278e1)
图6.1 大类资产时间序列动量策略回测表现
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0012-0031.jpg?sign=1739289721-zgIflCQCtLunzvYtyyCC1hsJ5tVoUBMT-0-089c1f368f6e825e1e884e887457e684)
图6.3 大类资产横截面动量策略回测表现
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0013-0032.jpg?sign=1739289721-YRQz2CuB6AL6V3ACJwzJAbLM5Kb0vjlZ-0-c940e30ad06fbdc76fc0d6c0e89b7ac7)
图6.4 改进的横截面动量策略回测表现
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0013-0033.jpg?sign=1739289721-TAWqxTjh4JfFJ9NjoatO1mmEiX9M9zDY-0-cc51c2e481196fc0b690f72f3e72ae04)
图6.5 时间序列动量与横截面动量的叠加
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0013-0034.jpg?sign=1739289721-KZ7nFrDAdKYQltb3YxC9XRlADtLoSUfi-0-7af012df5eb2b9bc634e62ca59671417)
图6.15 奇异谱模型回测结果
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0014-0035.jpg?sign=1739289721-dPfXl1ZX1phHOyj9zpUYTbVfTPITUNm6-0-17394c9c4b8854b90d12d8196e64e1c4)
图6.16 申万一级行业指数单季度涨跌幅统计(%)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0014-0036.jpg?sign=1739289721-ktQUIDSz8apJPbsqz12f2nFvlnAxH8ht-0-965d53eee0bdc3c690e0d1d32d0422ed)
图6.21 多期风格雷达——大摩多因子策略(数据日期:2015年4月)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0014-0037.jpg?sign=1739289721-Wh7cHywBHhEbqgT230QGC1BlKjMWzw5z-0-0013423687a484d66782321ed6d21842)
图6.22 基于风格雷达的FOF表现(数据 日 期:2014/12—2016/1)
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0015-0038.jpg?sign=1739289721-VBhCrFKLPFUbD6qZ3NNi776OKLWDyzil-0-af5fd6a32520569297d42e6e25cc7b4b)
图6.24 某只基金的半年、季、月频风格画像
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0015-0039.jpg?sign=1739289721-W6k1grqJQb12P9kTMYSKapcR89zMeUos-0-910c9d99567482b41ead1496d54296e9)
图6.28 策略净值曲线
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0015-0040.jpg?sign=1739289721-cCRfXUIwSW19atUMX4xfSkGYlYoH4PND-0-37a4eb92fcf4210cd6c2351b1c991ccf)
图6.30 策略被选基金统计
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0016-0041.jpg?sign=1739289721-nhcOr0BR4FvqhBLV9baEs4A6rLsvG4CD-0-72fe2d58348a2c160d6e63bb20de3918)
图6.38 沪深300指数(大盘指数)、中证500指数(中小盘指数)和中证1000指数(小盘指数)走势图对比
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0016-0042.jpg?sign=1739289721-Q8QrPad1WVaKyMTO62U9gmTa48xFBJzI-0-65552a8d306a84dc65f9bc52cf3fa05d)
图6.40 标准二分类Logistic模型轮动策略收益率
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0016-0043.jpg?sign=1739289721-T9zbczfRRjuqJNH4LznqUOFuXkg9Owxt-0-abec8f74fa1f667ad240bfddb2e8e1b1)
图6.41 有序多分类Logistic模型轮动策略收益率
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0017-0044.jpg?sign=1739289721-E1CkilzC1FoBO2aAtIg5lubMnt91YTtG-0-d50f4e38a36d9e360d1e770551276e56)
图7.4 国外目标日期策略指数的配置变化
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0017-0045.jpg?sign=1739289721-RmmTHt4LmLBm5FeSYB53mYrJacbZiRT7-0-534bf201ef4042acc48d2e0b1c1fb87e)
图7.9 中证平安2025退休宝指数走势
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0017-0046.jpg?sign=1739289721-s6JQVcRj3nUUaPw7Dv3cOOB6VxQhVGCT-0-c147b9d8bd57e2fc3d6bbaff81d2c317)
图7.13 标普500每日风险控制系列指数走势图
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0018-0047.jpg?sign=1739289721-6aofG2BnDyZMmF1lGOQZUZsjtTFEZvLN-0-ef9d63b4ca376197e3b748db3ccb1599)
图7.14 标普目标风险系列指数走势
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0018-0048.jpg?sign=1739289721-djBO8f8IjgWxN9CdnMLah279Uglh9sxA-0-99b93eaad87f29b82cd6b25393d5825e)
图8.11 对冲基金FOF的模拟业绩
数据来源:Risk Parity Portfolios with Risk Factors
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0018-0049.jpg?sign=1739289721-r3Sy5Z04fus6iTQUpDyb8bUbKT1lBtUS-0-af2ffed516ac52919711418f9ca62e19)
图9.7 2000—2015年总体基金的资产配置变化图
数据来源:星潮FOF整理
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0019-0050.jpg?sign=1739289721-0zasGknwBHsw7KfpvUfde0aTPE4lehHe-0-6a4bf0759a2aa61fcdb4f4b75168c198)
图11.1 多因子模型的收益率曲线
数据来源:[周冠伟 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0019-0051.jpg?sign=1739289721-Xuq2HZnhCTvwAT9eds9kKx8BBqbgqudg-0-1932d0e077301721998a749e6fa002ba)
图11.2 大/小盘风格轮动策略收益率曲线
数据来源:[周冠伟 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0019-0052.jpg?sign=1739289721-jBVtz66IfivdrxkkM6GRTGnTfet2PloF-0-174ff4e93d7453f5920a156724a3ce92)
图11.3 顺周期行业轮动策略的收益率图示
数据来源:[周冠伟 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0020-0053.jpg?sign=1739289721-arnQkQqCMBR3ocDkkmVmLhfRvO9qXEyZ-0-e0e5539460f5ad5ce072ed6fb7d1e4f1)
图11.7 2006年一致预期EPS相对于2005年实际EPS的增速
数据来源:[谢江 2008]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0020-0054.jpg?sign=1739289721-cWL1sDPpIPph3AXLlgh8HnuZdcTOBYLh-0-aab64cb4a3be62086546f3684e895d7b)
图11.8 不同一致预期指标的收益率曲线
数据来源:[卜永强 2012]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0020-0055.jpg?sign=1739289721-5Az8Sq9MKLaoF8jvmFZhLNSEnPXityca-0-fda951fc93b240c7027ee5c6d8f7d13e)
图11.9 筹码选股模型中单个指标在不同年份的收益率情况
数据来源:[周冠伟 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0021-0056.jpg?sign=1739289721-7uXYpW1Q714DrU8vdxTUYINLTNFrSCZA-0-2b59a2fdfd651e647a5e5687b109e70b)
图11.10 筹码选股模型中单个指标的收益率曲线
数据来源:[周冠伟 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0021-0057.jpg?sign=1739289721-NbDA2qN6NrPOAHmdkRRb56kYyxu4qfiK-0-350dd4c68056384e5d056e59bae09b71)
图11.15 追踪组合与指数的累计收益率图2004.1.2—2007.3.30)
数据来源:[金志宏 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0021-0058.jpg?sign=1739289721-MSSkYXotLVSxMwKllC97aSPbtoxBLX6b-0-0e22c417f203043e45d5eeda92d2f806)
图11.16 追踪组合与指数的累计收益率图(2004.1.2—2005.12.30)
数据来源:[金志宏 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0021-0059.jpg?sign=1739289721-uusOiuwtDBipc8qCuk6xdW100DX1thO9-0-6fa5b161249f4322fb7da554bf556f3c)
图11.17 追踪组合与指数的累计收益率图(2006.1.4—2007.3.30)
数据来源:[金志宏 2016]
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0022-0060.jpg?sign=1739289721-bsOWIGqKqR9Cj2NAwdRcwXLpnwcHZkjN-0-05c31c5af1db210d3451b24483ee0fb8)
图11.31 正向基差套利原理
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0022-0061.jpg?sign=1739289721-Wxthdu7tnykyiXOxlf9G0V59e9bZTZiK-0-b83a6e6c5edf0f6c2bea98d34809ab52)
图16.1 Bridgewater的绝对阿尔法累计收益率对比
数据来源:MPI Case Study
![](https://epubservercos.yuewen.com/9C34C8/13916126205942306/epubprivate/OEBPS/Images/36002-0022-0062.jpg?sign=1739289721-6Jqtm2Wh6l1lce5jxovdZ4v2D8wo1KKH-0-98194619525e7bdea65d2d656c5ad019)
图16.9 长期资本管理基金净值走势